No cherry picking 1987 and all that

[dollar'sbloke]

A truly seminal year for us and our peer clubs, the reelection scam was over and meritocracy set in.
The fourth division featured varying sorts of clubs.
Burnley, PNE and Wolves were clearly in historically lows and almost bound to rebound, PNE have never made it back to the top tier but rarely play us.
Swansea and Cardiff are cities not sure what they were doing so low, but it is hard to see them as peers.
Northampton, Colchester, Peterboro, Cambridge, and Crewe have probably outperformed us since our first return to tier 4.
Stockport, Wrexham consistently underperformed us but now look well set to do the opposite in the medium term.
Orient, Exeter and Lincoln, who went down in 87, have had mixed outcomes but seem set to be higher than us in the short term.
Southend, Aldershot ( a different club I didn't realise), Scunny, Hartlepool and Rochdale have had big troubles but in theory could get back from tier 5, although collectively that is a long term theory.
Torquay, Hereford and Halifax would have loved to have a Palios than certain owners they have endured.
When Adkins/Palios and possibly soon to be Crosby are described as an utter disgrace, I'd actually suggest it is just plain average.
Interestingly quite a few bottom dwellers were up that year and they fit in all the above cats. Also Wycombe came up with its part of Bucks having a wider area of 500,000 with the soon to be controversial other part Milton Keynes using its population of half that, to come to the party!
One thing for sure, things have changed and our standing still might be seen as progress?

 

[O4anotherplayoff]

1987 was also the year we entered administration. No points deductions in those days or we’d have been well and truly sunk. Instead, PJ took on the mantle, Gary Williams kept us up by the skin of our teeth and the rest is history.

In answer to the question - I’d say standing still against ever-increasing headwinds is easily underestimated. Some have been blown away altogether. Not sure it can be considered progress but possibly an achievement of sorts, depending on resources. Probably not an achievement to get the champagne corks popping though!

 

[drwhoman]

The game has changed immeasurably. As was forecast at the time the Premier League has sucked the blood from the rest of the pyramid. We survived because PJ put money in and then astute management did its bit. To think that we could sign the likes of Nevin and Aldridge today. Not a hope in hell. We would need a huge funds injection to get back to that, and well over and above the rate of inflation. The price of possible (only possible) success is far higher today. We support the team through local loyalty and , in many cases, nostalgia for the joys, and sometimes the despair, of our past fan experiences.

 

[bring back the cowshed!]

Getting back to what is our "natural" level, I have looked at our history from the formation of the Third and Fourth Divisions back in 1958, coincidentally when I started supporting Rovers.

We have spent 10 seasons in what is now the Championship, 30 in League One, 25 in League Two and three in the National League. So, we have spent 40 out of those 68 seasons in League One or above. We have never spent more than ten consecutive years in League Two or below, and that was in the eighties when we went bust.

I would say that given our history and our traditional level of support, we should be comfortably in League One.

 

[dollar'sbloke]

Getting back to what is our "natural" level, I have looked at our history from the formation of the Third and Fourth Divisions back in 1958, coincidentally when I started supporting Rovers.

We have spent 10 seasons in what is now the Championship, 30 in League One, 25 in League Two and three in the National League. So, we have spent 40 out of those 68 seasons in League One or above. We have never spent more than ten consecutive years in League Two or below, and that was in the eighties when we went bust.

I would say that given our history and our traditional level of support, we should be comfortably in League One.

If you exclude the outlier of PJ and his money. From Fred Lloyd, Bothwell and his subsequent cronies we drifted between one and two as they are now. Then it went downhill.
Palios probably fits into Lloyd and Bothwell bracket.
You also have to accept the opposition is stronger as most of our old peers are below us.
The question is what comes next, my money would be lower not higher

 

[O4anotherplayoff]

Getting back to what is our "natural" level, I have looked at our history from the formation of the Third and Fourth Divisions back in 1958, coincidentally when I started supporting Rovers.

We have spent 10 seasons in what is now the Championship, 30 in League One, 25 in League Two and three in the National League. So, we have spent 40 out of those 68 seasons in League One or above. We have never spent more than ten consecutive years in League Two or below, and that was in the eighties when we went bust.

I would say that given our history and our traditional level of support, we should be comfortably in League One.

Any discussion about a club’s natural level surely has to mean without a sugar daddy. Take the aberration of the Johnson period out of it and the picture’s rather different.

Keep in mind also where we were when Johnson sold up - seriously underinvested and, consequently, freshly relegated back to our natural level, L2 . Of course he left us in a better place than he found us, and none of us would’ve swapped the trip to the moon for anything, but that doesn’t scream a club which naturally belongs higher up.

Imho we won’t have a hope of L1 becoming our natural home - as opposed to, say, becoming a yo-yo club (as bigger clubs than us have been) - without significant new up-front investment. Squeezing the max out of existing levels of investment, topped up by any foreseeable rise in attendances if we did squeak a promotion, wouldn’t be enough, especially in football’s current inflationary climate.

The good news is MP recently said the likely new owners have the funds to make a difference, so the discussion will hopefully become academic over time. If this takeover ever gets completed, it’ll be fascinating to see how the new funding is deployed and where it takes us.

 

[O4anotherplayoff]

If you exclude the outlier of PJ and his money.

Exactly. Trouble is, many have never known anything other than the Johnson era prior to Palios coming in, so that’s their only frame of reference. Creates unrealistic expectations, and all the bile that comes with it when they’re not met.

 

[Rockford's Love Child]

In League One between 2001 and 2014 we did not receive significant investment. Johnson stopped investing in 1993-4 on his departure to Everton, so in reality the majority of our Championship years were also spent without a 'sugar daddy'.

We were actually only seriously bankrolled for three of the forty years we have spent at Championship or League One level, so BBTC's analysis is absolutely spot on.

 

[O4anotherplayoff]

The fuller facts say otherwise.

Sugar daddy money propelled us to what’s now the Championship but staying there for long was never really viable once the money stopped being pumped in - I assume nobody would dispute that. Fwiw I think Aldo did well to keep us up for as long as he did.

L1 gradually became more and more of a struggle as the transfer fees started drying up. Johnson wasn’t putting money in, but we were effectively funded by ever-dwindling reserves - from 2001 to 2013 our net liabilities (we didn’t have net assets..) increased by almost £5m - and it all caught up with us in the end.

So the drift back down to where we came from (L2) was precisely because the club could not sustain itself at L1 any longer. We didn’t crash and burn, but we were almost out of juice. And Johnson wasn’t prepared to throw more money at it other than the bare minimum - rightly imho - until he found a buyer.

If we ever get back to L1, to have any chance of making it our natural home it has to be on a firmer footing than that.

 

[bigmart]

We don't need to have millions thrown at the club to get promoted and be competitivein league 1, we need a proper structure off the pitch including a decent scouting network, director of football and a clear idea of how we are going to play and sign players who fit into the system.

We can moving from one plan to another without much real thought, one minute we are looking to sign players to sell on in a development model the next it's scrapped.

Get the playing side and coaching side sorted first then any projects can be looked into at a later date

 

[dollar'sbloke]

In League One between 2001 and 2014 we did not receive significant investment. Johnson stopped investing in 1993-4 on his departure to Everton, so in reality the majority of our Championship years were also spent without a 'sugar daddy'.

We were actually only seriously bankrolled for three of the forty years we have spent at Championship or League One level, so BBTC's analysis is absolutely spot on.

That clearly isn't true. PJ allowed our debts to mount initially, very quickly foregoing interest payments and you'll go a long way to match that policy anywhere. He then spent years managing our debt from afar not allowing it grow but funding it. It is re-writing history to say he had no control after leaving, he famously did. He made huge write offs when he sold a decade ago.
We were effectively bankrolled by him well after Palios took over who later used his expertise to gain capital from other sources.
PJ's money kept us going for 30 years and without it the current company would not exist. It is a moot point but the Indonesians, who I guess aren't over enthralled by their role so far, but they have put more hard cash in than several other regional owners!
If you study the accounts over time, all is there, but what happens next is what matters. Currently we are racking up debts to barely stand still

 

[O4anotherplayoff]

We don't need to have millions thrown at the club to get promoted and be competitivein league 1, we need a proper structure off the pitch including a decent scouting network, director of football and a clear idea of how we are going to play and sign players who fit into the system.

How much is that going to cost you? That’s only one part of the jigsaw anyway, maybe even the first piece, but that alone isn’t going to transform us into L1 becoming our natural level.

What about running and growing the club operationally? You surely don’t expect another owner to come in and do it all themselves for no pay while rivals are employing executive management on £200-300k a year.

And who are you expecting to continue underwriting the inevitable ongoing losses as the wage bill rises from mid table L2 levels to the going rate for comfortably staying in L1 for the long term? While you put investment in revenue-generating infrastructure onto the back burner? Increased attendances will never cover it, and never have done.

You’ve always relied on Johnson and Palios to plug the gap to the tune of millions. Completely taken for granted. Do you expect the next owners to carry on doing likewise? The numbers don’t come close to adding up otherwise. Sadly, that’s not an attractive investment proposition!

It needs investment in infrastructure to have any hope of making the club viable - financially viable - for the long term, even at L2 level never mind higher. That’s more expensive, but that’s what starts making the investment proposition a bit more appealing. For example, replacing or substantially refurbing/upgrading the main stand is one obvious project that’ll have to be addressed sooner than later…. big cost, but also a big opportunity for generating significant new revenues. And that’s before we even talk about a possible new stadium.

Ironic that very same people who’ve moaned for years that we need more investment are now arguing otherwise! Mind you, they do say that Tranmere always wants to do things on the cheap!

 

[dollar'sbloke]

Your co

We don't need to have millions thrown at the club to get promoted and be competitivein league 1, we need a proper structure off the pitch including a decent scouting network, director of football and a clear idea of how we are going to play and sign players who fit into the system.

We can moving from one plan to another without much real thought, one minute we are looking to sign players to sell on in a development model the next it's scrapped.

Get the playing side and coaching side sorted first then any projects can be looked into at a later date

Your comments are most vague and at best are the basic aims of everyone of the 24 clubs. I'd question the wisdom of a six figure contract for a suit to form a shadow over whoever you have as manager this week, especially as that would be the definition of a lack of clarity.
The development model was a dreadful failure, that is why it was scrapped. The idea of getting cast offs may have appealed then but three seasons on we have struggled in this league but neglected to use full time pros from MUFC and LFC as they were useless to even our cause. We can forget signing 21 year old prem players who have never played on open match in their lives or Wigan youth cast offs!!!